A lot has changed since the Oscar nominations came out a month ago. First, and probably most importantly, “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” tied for the PGA, which thrust “Gravity” back into contention. Second, “12 Years a Slave” won the BAFTA. Third, “Gravity” has pretty much dominated all the craft guild awards.
“American Hustle” looks like it’s in trouble. There has been a bit of a backlash. There has been a group of critics who have called its praise premature and that upon a second look it is completely overrated.
What we also have to look at is the fact that a split between Director and Picture is rare. When it does happen it is always a surprise (“Brokeback Mountain” takes director, “Crash” takes picture. “The Pianist” takes director, “Chicago” takes picture.) Although there have been times that it was expected, like Steven Soderbergh for “Traffic” it has been pretty consistent. So does this mean “Gravity” will win.
There is also the fact that it is going to sweep around 6-7 awards. When there is a sweep it is rare that the film doesn’t also win Best Picture. “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” for example won all 11 of its races, “Titanic” won 11 awards, “The Hurt Locker” won 6, “Shakespeare in Love” won 7. So in short, Gravity is the frontrunner.
UPDATE 2/27: Will the Academy really award a CGI driven, space oriented film starring a woman? I’m not so confident anymore. My FINAL PREDICTION is for “12 Years a Slave”
Check out my rankings below and all of our Oscar predictions here!
Will Win: “12 Years a Slave”
Could Win: “Gravity”
Should Win: “12 Years a Slave” or “Her” or “Nebraska” or “Gravity” (This was a good year…)
Should have been nominated: Dream Choice: “Short Term 12”; Practical Choice: “Inside Llewyn Davis”